The End of Empire Report, May 5th 2026.
With your roving reporter, Alex Ingersoll
The End of Empire Report
May 5, 2026
With your roving reporter Alex Ingersoll
Prelude:
The United States and Israel launched surprise airstrikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeting military installations across the country. Iran retaliated swiftly with missile and drone strikes and moved to close the Strait of Hormuz — triggering the most significant American military buildup in the Middle East since the invasion of Iraq in 2003.
Now
The war is now in a fragile and dangerous holding pattern. A ceasefire took hold in early April, but it is nominal at best. The U.S. Navy is enforcing a blockade on Iranian ports while Iran simultaneously maintains its closure of the Strait of Hormuz — creating a dual blockade that has effectively shut down a waterway carrying roughly 20% of the world’s oil and gas. Oil prices surged above $100 per barrel in mid-March and have remained there.
The ground invasion question now dominates Pentagon planning. Two specific targets are under active discussion: Kharg Island, Iran’s central oil export hub located off its southwestern coast, and Iranian nuclear enrichment sites, to seize or destroy enriched uranium stockpiles. Roughly 3,500 Marines and sailors are already in the Persian Gulf, with another 3,500 en route, and hundreds of Special Operations forces are in place. An amphibious assault ship, USS Tripoli, is operating in the region. Three carrier strike groups are now deployed simultaneously in the Middle East — the first time in decades.
The War Powers Act has been quietly circumvented. May 1 was the 60-day deadline requiring Trump to seek congressional authorization or stand down. The administration sidestepped it by declaring that the ceasefire had “terminated hostilities” — even though the blockade continues, Iran still controls the Strait, and Trump has repeatedly warned that strikes could resume. One official floated renaming the entire operation “Epic Passage” to reset the legal clock entirely.
Yesterday, May 4, brought the situation to a new precipice. Trump announced on May 3 that the U.S. would begin escorting commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz starting May 4. Iran’s military responded with a direct warning against American forces entering the strait. As of this morning, the situation is described by observers as “one step away” from renewed hostilities. Gas prices are up nearly 50%, the United States has spent an estimated $25 billion, and the administration’s approval rating has collapsed.
Iran has warned that in the event of a ground invasion, “no single soldier will be left alive.” The conflict is simultaneously intersecting with renewed U.S.-China tensions over Taiwan and fresh friction along the Russia-NATO frontier, creating a genuinely multipolar crisis environment. The Strait of Hormuz remains the economic choke point of the entire confrontation. With it closed, global oil markets face structural disruption and Iran’s revenues are being slowly strangled — but so is the world’s.
The empire does not fall in a single day. It bleeds out through overreach, arrogance, and the compounding weight of wars it cannot afford, fought for objectives it cannot clearly name.
The End of Empire Report is published as events warrant.